We know from the Netcast prequels so far that the population of Earth was undoubtedly several billion more than today before the Bio-Digital Plague. But, repeatedly in the "present" time of the main series we're told that the Jung killed "millions and millions" of people in their successive bombardments of the Earth in episodes 10 and 11. Jessica even recently said it was "a quarter of the population". So, if "millions and millions of people" are 0.25% of the Earth's post-plague population a thousand years later, does the mean that population hasn't risen higher than a billion people?
I think we are looking at in the region of 5 Billion pre Jung, 4 Billion post Jung. (The British Isles while recently recolonized, had an EDF Academy. Also Multiple City's are mentioned as filling the areas where old cities once stood. Women while trying to build the population are beginning to take on roles other then "Baby Factories" due to advancements in Medicine etc since the Data Arch was discovered.)
Pre plague Earths population would have been in the region of 10-12 Billion (from descriptions of city's in the Net casts)
The Earth's population at the time of the invention of FTL travel was around 20 billion. In addition, there were several million living on Mars, and a few hundred thousand on the Earth's moon. Thousands more were living on various space stations, asteroid bases, research outposts, etc, throughout the system.
A few decades after the invention of FTL travel, the big migration began. Within a couple hundred years, the Earth's population had been cut in half, with most of those numbers going to the core worlds.
The bio-digital plague, through deaths and migration, reduced the overall population of all worlds by about 90%. This of course led to the complete collapse of all infrastructure over the course of only a few decades.
Recovery was slow, as many of those who did survive were not able to bear children. By the time that the data ark was recovered, the Earth's population was only up to around 1 billion. Over the next 100 years, it did grow to around 2 billion, thanks in large part to better birth and survival rates, thanks to the data ark. It could have grown even more, but the need for both skilled and unskilled labor suddenly rose with the data ark's discovery, and more an more women were eschewing the role of child-bearing to enter the work force. In addition, the sudden advent of effective birth control, and the call by the powers that be to not let the population grow faster than the infrastructure could support it, further hindered growth.
After the attacks by the Jung, the Earth's population was reduced to around 900 million, so yes, the population of Earth had been nearly cut in half. (Closer to a third, though. Surprise, Jessica exaggerated.)
@rykbrown Thank you. I do have one more question, though. While reading your books, I've always had a sense that the culture of "present day" post-plague Earth was similar to our own culture were we to have interstellar travel (i.e. people wear t-shirts and jeans but travel around space in starships at the same time). Would that be an accurate read of Earth's culture in the your books?
That was definitely on purpose. I wanted three things.
> A sense of familiarity, or a connection to the story, and the ability to empathize with the characters.
> The feeling that the characters were using technology that was beyond them, and that they were not really ready for.
> Unknown 'Alien' societies spread all over the stars, that were all human and not really aliens.
The bio-digital plague, and the resulting 'fleeing to space in all directions', followed by the 'dark ages' after the collapse of all infrastructure on the Earth and the core worlds got me all of those things. It allowed my to have a new Earth society, similar to today's society, but with more advanced technology.
And no frickin' aliens.
What about non Frickin' aliens?! There should be alien bio life, mostly bacteria level.
Actually you have plenty, as all of the humans who were not originally from earth are by definition alien.
and whats wrong with a few little green men running around? Leprechauns aren't too bad.
When I said no aliens, I meant no intelligent life other than humans that had at one point in their family tree had migrated from Earth.
I find 90% of all Sci Fi aliens to simply be on the silly side. Furry, green, 3-boobed, 4-handed, tailed, wiggly antenna, versions of humans. It always feels to me like using a ton of really bright colors in a painting in order to look impressive. To me, it's cheating, taking an easy way out. They always just humanize them in order to make them more believable to the audience anyway, so what's the point? I like the idea of using a vast array of human cultures, separated by time and distance, and allowed to diversify into even greater varieties. We have people on Earth now whose ways and cultures seem as bizarre to us (in the US) as any non-human intelligent alien from another world. Then scatter them far and wide and see how the varying environments and events change them even further? Sounds far more interesting to me.
While I am the last person to think that humans are the only intelligent species in existence in this vast universe, it IS possible, no matter how improbable. That's why there are two different words. 'Impossible' and 'improbable'. I've always held the position that while there probably are other intelligent beings out there, they may not be nearby. When you consider the string of events that led to humans, and the number of species on just this one planet that did NOT evolve into intelligent life, the idea that the stars are teeming with intelligent life seems as preposterous as the idea that they aren't.
So, why not entertain the idea that we are the only ones?
@rykbrown I like your idea that we are the only ones ... And I'm sure the statistics is against the idea of aliens.
I once saw an illustration where the entire history of the universe was represented by a huge stack of paper sheets. The history of humanity was represented by exactly one (the last) sheet.
Now, if it should also come somewhere to human life (aliens), the history there could also be represented by a stack of paper sheets. The probability that both stacks have the same height is negligible.
In addition, the probability hrundsätzliche comes with the ever intelligent life arises.
So if there is or was or will be intelligent life somewhere - it is extinct for thousands of years, or even in the age of dinosaurs.
@teezett:
Must have been a huge stack of papers then, as the number of sheets of papers come out to around 140,000 to 1,400,000 depending on when you define the start of human history. Also your example for aliens isn't valid as it's only true for a single species. It's pretty much like asking the probability that an alien species that are near identical to [insert really any sci-fi alien species] exists. The answer in that case is of course "negligible". You'd have give stacks to every alien species that have ever existed for your example to be valid. Given the number of galaxies alone, the number of species-sheets likely fills a room if not a warehouse or more.
It might actually be better to think of it as scattering a number of marbles of various sizes on a floor to see how close the end up being. The two big questions are 1) How many marbles are there? (represented the number of civilizations that currently exist or once existed) and 2) How much floor space is there (especially in comparison to the size of the marbles)? (representing the distance between civilizations in space and time.
